Argentina soy crop forecast at 39.5 MMt, down 31% on year: BAGE

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) trimmed its 2017/18 soy crop by a further 2.5 million mt down to 39.5 million mt, with the most recent losses in the north eastern area of the country which was hit by drought during critical growth stages, the exchange said in an update Thursday.

That figure is down 31% on the year and 14.5 million mt less since BAGE’s first estimate at the start of the season, and is one of the first industry bodies to forecast a crop lower than 40 million mt.

“The scenario continues to worsen even in the last stage of the crop cycle across the national agricultural region,” the exchange said.

Low temperatures in the north worsen the already dry situation further, which will likely cause, in the most optimistic scenario, a delay in the harvest, BAGE said.

If warned that the full impact of the drought and the cold are not known yet and that it could have a further impact on pod losses and grain filling, cutting yields even further.

The exchange also trimmed its corn forecast down to 32 million mt as adverse weather continues “to cause a decline in the yield potential” in the late stages of the crop.

Their latest forecast is down 2 million mt from last month’s view and down 7 million mt from last year’s crop size and puts it in line with the Rosario Board of Trade’s expectations.

Nationwide about 13.3% of the planted 5.4 million hectares have been harvested so far with average to low results as large parts of the acreage suffered water deficiency during yield defining periods.  

Acreages harvested in centre of the country already show below averages yields.