Argentina soybean output lowered to 45m mt, 2021/22 at 51.5m mt

The USDA’s local office in Argentina has lowered the country’s 2020/21 soybean production and export estimates to 45 million mt and 5.5 million mt, respectively, as prolonged dry conditions jeopardise yield estimates, a report dated April 15 said.

Output estimates were reduced by 2.5 million mt from the last official USDA forecast following insufficient rainfall, especially in the provinces of northwestern Buenos Aires and Entre Rios.

“Above average rains across much of the country in January raised expectation for higher yields [but] drought returned to Argentina in early February through mid-March… [and] yields have generally trended down,” the report said.

Exports were also downgraded from 6.85 million mt at USDA’s latest official release to 5.5 million mt backed by “competition from Brazil and strong local crush demand,” the post said.

Looking ahead, the post has set 2021/22 soybean production estimates at 51.5 million mt as it expects planted area to increase by 100,000 hectares, or 0.6%, on the year supported by high international prices driving the conversion of pastures into croplands.

Yields are also forecast to recover from 2.7 mt/ha in 2020/21 to 3.0 mt/ha in 2021/22, despite more beans being produced as lower-yielding second crops.

Though domestic crush demand is forecast to remain strong for the new crop, at 42 million mt, up by 500,000 mt on the year, exports estimates are set 1 million mt higher on the year at 6.5 million mt, albeit still below the 2019/20 level of 6.65 million mt level.