Argentina soymeal slumps to 40% of world trade in 2020/21: BCR

The proportion of Argentine soymeal in international markets is expected to reach 39.9% in the 2020/21 cycle, the lowest level in two decades, a report by the Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) has found.

According to BCR estimates, Brazil's share would remain at around 25% and the US would climb to 20% this cycle.

“Although Argentina continues to be the main supplier of soymeal, with exports estimated for the 2020/21 season of around 26.5 million mt, the relative share of our country in the world total would fall to 39.9% for the first time since the 2000/01 cycle,” BCR said in the report.

That would amount to a ten percentage point decline since the all-time high recorded in the 2016/17 season, with Brazil and the US the main beneficiaries the report noted.

For soyoil, Argentina is expected to ship 5.7 million mt of the soft oil in the current crop cycle, representing 47% of the global trade.

That compares with exports of 5.4 million mt and a 45% share of global trade in the vegetable oil in the previous cycle.

BCR also estimated that Brazil and the US would both export approximately 1.2 million mt of soyoil in the current crop, which would each represent 10% of global trade.

Overall, international trade in the soyoil segment is expected to exceed the 12 million mt mark for the first time in history this year, representing growth of 14% compared to the average shipped over the last decade, BCR said.

The exchange also expects Argentina to export 6.5 million mt of soybean in the 2020/21 crop, down 4% from 6.8 million mt in the previous cycle and down 11% compared with the five-year average.

Finally, Argentina's export place in the global soybean complex is expected to reach 16% in the 2020/21 crop, among the lowest contributions in the last thirty years. 

“From 1990 until now, the only time that the participation of the Argentine soybean complex in world exports was below this mark was in the 2017/18 season, when a severe drought negatively impacted the national soybean production that reached just 35 million mt,” BCR said.

“This 16% is also half of the record of 32% that our country managed to achieve in the 2007/08 campaign,” the report noted.