Australia’s June exports muted amid lower competitiveness

Australian wheat, barley, and rapeseed (canola) exports decreased in June, as the country lost price competitiveness versus Northern Hemisphere suppliers, official customs data showed Monday.

Line-up data studied by Agricensus suggests that muted export rates will continue in July and through the next few months of the year as the seasonal trend for this period of the marketing year is felt.

That comes as Northern Hemisphere producers start harvesting.

However, unlike last year, the Northern Hemisphere has started the new marketing year with high stocks, which has also pushed down prices and made the region even more competitive as it runs into harvest.

Meanwhile in Australia prices have been relatively stable amid quality concerns within the upcoming new crop. 

Australia exported 2.57 million mt of wheat through June 2023, which is 22% lower compared to May figures and also 5% below the level seen in June 2022, when the previous record was set for this period.

Indonesia took the lead as the main destination in monthly exports, with a market share of 20% - equivalent to 509,026 mt.

That was followed by Thailand with 381,275 mt, Vietnam with 311,335 mt, and Iraq, which imported 265,000 mt of Australian wheat.

In turn, that meant that total exports since the beginning of the local 2022/23 marketing year, in October 2022, have now reached 25.47 million mt, up 21% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, the latest available line-up data, including information from the country's three biggest grain operators (approximately 80% of the country's share), showed around 1.6 million mt of wheat had already loaded in July with around 1.1 million mt nominated to leave through August.

Barley exports dropped in June by 22% to 465,891 mt, which is also down 11% compared with the same period in 2022.

The two biggest importers were Saudi Arabia with 184,000 mt or 39% of the shipped volume, and Japan with 155,090 mt or 33%.

This lifted total barley volumes exported from Australia since the start of the marketing year in November 2022 to 5.48 million mt, 5% below the result seen during the same period a year ago.

Meanwhile, the available line-up data implies stable rates in barley export flows are likely to maintain during July, as at least 259,924 mt of barley was already nominated for loading with another 216,723 mt during August.

It is also expected to see an improvement of barley export as China has officially eliminated all the restrictions on Australian-origin imports on August 4, but this might be seen mostly for new crop starting in December, as nearby months' trade is not expected the big surge in such trade flow amid already booked port capacities.

As for rapeseed, monthly exports again decreased by 35% to 329,162 mt, putting them also 39% lower than the same month last year.

Pakistan remained the main importer with 120,599 mt or 37%, followed by Japan with 71,804 mt, Belgium with 62,065 mt, and France with 54,897 mt.

Cumulative exports of rapeseeds for the marketing year in October have now reached 4.9 million mt - 2% up year-on-year.