BAGE cuts soybean projection 6% as over half the crop in drought

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) on Thursday cut its estimate of Argentina's crop to 44 million mt, down 3 million mt from its previous projection last week as 52% of the crop remains under drought.

The figure, published in a weekly report, is down 10 million mt since the start of the campaign and down almost 14 million mt from the 2016/17 production number.

Estimated corn production remains unchanged at 37 million mt, down 2 million mt from 2016/17's production figures.

The corn harvest has started at the centre of the agricultural area in the provinces of Cordoba, Santa Fe and Buenos Aires, and now stands at 3.2%

Initial corn yields show 6.4 mt per hectare, below expectations due to water deficiency, the report said, and BAGE warned that “if there is no precipitation in the coming days, yields would potentially have decreased and will negatively impact national production”.

Weather

The dry weather has persisted since mid-November causing soybean projections to be cut several times.

Only a few remote areas in the central and southern areas have seen abundant rain fall over the past week, with most of the planted soy in drought and “registering uninterrupted losses in its yield potential,” the report said.

Apart from some northern areas, the Argentinian crop is approaching harvest period, with no time left to rectify the damage and with significant reductions to yields which are “reflected in expectations” which now have below historical averages.

The expected yield was cut as many fields did not achieve their full growing potential in the vegetative stage and were further hit during key final growth stages, BAGE said.