Brazil corn harvest cut to 125.3 million mt due to drought in south

Brazil’s total corn production has the potential to reach the historical mark of 125.3 million mt in 2022/23, lower than the previous 126.6 million mt projection but exceeding the 120.2 million mt from the 2021/22 season, local consultancy Safras & Mercado has said in a report released on Friday.

The reduction reflects lower production of summer crop due to drought in the south.

The country’s total corn area is projected at 21.60 million ha in 2022/23, slightly below the previous 21.65 million ha estimate and a 0.3% decline compared to the 21.663 million ha from 2021/22.

The average yield is expected to reach 5.8 mt per hectare in the current season, surpassing the 5.55 mt/ha from the past crop, but below the 5.8 mt/ha projected in December.  

Summer crop

Brazil’s summer corn 2022/23 production in the center-south Brazil is projected to reach 23.7 million mt, below the 24.8 million mt estimated in December, but remains above the 21.8 million mt from the previous crop.

The reduction reflects the significant cut in corn production in Rio Grande do Sul, which has been severely affected by the drought, Safras & Mercado consultant Paulo Molinari said.

The harvest in the southern state is now estimated at 4.6 million mt, below the 5.8 million mt projected in the previous estimate, but was still ahead of the 3.4 million mt harvested in the 2021/22 summer crop.

Planted area is expected to fall by 4.5% year-on-year, to 4.1 million hectares in the center-south Brazil, while the average yield is projected at 5.6 mt/ha versus 4.9 mt/ha a year ago.

Safrinha

The second corn crop safrinha planted area is expected to reach 14.95 million ha, slightly below the 14.97 million hectares forecast in December, but surpassing the 14.8 million ha from 2021/22.

The output is estimated at 87.7 million mt, slightly below the 87.8 million mt forecasts in December, but sets a new record by surpassing the 84.4 million mt from last year.