Brazil increases soy production forecast 0.47%, lowers corn 0.4%

Brazil will produce between 106.4-108.6 million mt of soybean in the 2017/2018 harvest, according to estimates by Brazil’s food statistics (Conab) published Thursday.

Conab’s estimate, which is the second projection for the current crop, is up on its previous forecast of 106-108 million mt due to a revision in the acreage that is expected to be planted with yields remaining stable at 3.7%.

Acreage forecasts have risen to a median of 34.95 million hectares, up from 34.85 million hectares.

The forecast reaffirms expectations that Brazil will not be able to repeat its 2016/2017 harvest, when excellent growing conditions saw the world’s biggest exporter pump out 114 million mt of soybeans and rival the US as the world’s biggest producer.

Conab also lowered its estimate for corn production in the 2017/2018 by 0.6% to 92.3 million mt compared to its October estimate on expected poorer growing conditions.

The estimates, if correct, will represent a 5.6% decline in production compared to the 2016/2017 harvest, largely as a result of a 2.5% decline in yields and a 2.6% decline in acreage planted to 13.77 million hectares.