Brazil's Feb soy exports to shrink YOY, recover in March: AgRural

Brazil’s exports of soybean in February are expected to fall below February 2016 levels as a slower harvest in southern states including Parana is expected to see international sales slow, according to Daniele Siqueira, a market analyst with AgRural.

Speaking on Agri Talk radio, Siqueira said that Brazil’s record exports in January were driven by old crop sales, while February sales would be hampered by the delay of planting in Brazil’s southern states.

"Our shipping line up for February is at 1.8 million tonnes. I think it could be a little higher than this, so I don’t expect a monthly record for February, but I think in March we could be able to export more again," she said.

Brazil exported 3.5 million mt of soybean last year and 8.98 million mt in March, according to the official government data.

The key states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias typically export first through southern ports, but the harvest in these states has been delayed compared to last year due to rains in October that delayed planting.

However, that has not impacted production levels, with AgRural estimating Brazil’s crop at 116.2 million mt, 2.1 million mt higher than last year.

That figure is still subject to review as persistent rain across Mato Grosso and Mato Gross do Sul, which accounts for over 40% of soybean production, may hit production levels, although Siqueira said that was unlikely.

"Right now there are no quality issues… but if (those states) receive more rains over the next, let’s say seven days, 10 days then they will start having problems, but… we have drier forecasts for the next two weeks so I don’t think that is going to be a problem this year."

On the flip side, Siqueira said AgRural’s production forecast out of Brazil could actually increase over the next two months, if yield data from states that haven’t harvested come in higher than expected.

Brazil’s food statistics agency will release its own estimates for this year’s crop and export figures on Thursday and is widely expected by the market to revise them upwards from its previous estimate of 110.4 million mt and 65 million mt, respectively.