Brazil´s soybean output slashed to 146.9 million mt: Conab

Brazil's food agency Conab has slashed its soybean crop estimates for the third consecutive month to 146.9 million mt, a 1.7% decline from the previous report, and cut its corn output forecast by 0.8% to 112.7 million mt in a monthly update published Tuesday.

In February, Conab pegged the soybean crop at 149.4 million mt and the country’s corn output at 113.6 million mt.

The country's total oilseeds and grain production is now projected at 295.6 million mt, 1.4% lower than last month’s 299.7 million mt estimates.

Brazil’s output estimate is down 7.6% from the 319.8 million mt record crop from 2022/23.

The country’s planted area was trimmed to 78.1 million mt, 0.2% below the 78.3 million ha projected in the previous report, and 0.5% below the 78.5 million ha planted in 2022/23.

Soybean
The new estimate for Brazil’s soybean production is down 5% from the 154.6 million mt record crop harvested in 2022/23 and a 4.5% decline from the initial 162 million mt forecast.

However, it remains the second-biggest crop in history.

The decline reflects low rainfall and above-average temperatures all over producing regions, “but in late sowing areas, the rain has been favorable to crop development,” Conab said.

The planted area estimates are now at 45.2 million ha, an 0.2% gain from February’s 45 million ha forecast and 2.5% above the 44.1 million ha from 2022/23.

Yield estimates were reduced to 3,251 kilos/ha, 1.9% down from the previous 3,314 kilos/ha projection, and a 7.3% drop on the year.

Brazil's 2024 soybean export estimates were reduced to 92.3 million mt from last month’s 94.1 million mt forecast, 9.3% below the record 101.8 million mt sent abroad in 2023.

Soybean crushing estimates were trimmed by 829,000 mt to 52.5 million mt versus the previous 53.3 million mt projection, slightly above the 52.1 million mt soybean crush from 2023.

According to Conab, that reflects the lower availability of soybeans but is mostly due to an increase in Argentina’s crop, which will hinder Brazilian products exports.

Conab also reduced Brazil’s soymeal production forecast to 40.2 million mt from the previous report's 41 million mt estimate.

The agency increased its 2023 soymeal output to 40.75 from 40.6 million mt seen in February’s report.

Brazilian soymeal exports forecast was cut to 20 million mt from last month’s 21.5 million mt forecasts, while Conab also adjusted lower its 2023 figure to 22.4 from the previous 22.6 million mt.

Domestic demand was pegged at 18 million mt in 2024, slightly above the 17.8 million mt seen in 2023.

Conab trimmed its 2024 soyoil output estimates to 10.6 million mt from last month’s 10.7 million mt projection.

In 2023, Brazil’s production reached 10.5 million mt.

Soyoil 2024 export estimates were also reduced to 1.4 million mt from February’s 1.5 million mt projection, while in 2023 shipments totaled 2.3 million mt.

Domestic demand was projected at 9.2 million mt in 2024 versus last year’s 8.4 million mt.

Corn
Brazil’s new corn output estimate is 14.5% lower than last year’s 131.9 million mt record crop.

The summer crop production was trimmed to 23.4 million mt, a 0.8% decline from last month’s 23.6 million mt forecasts and 14.5% drop from 2022/23’s 27.37 million mt output.

Second crop safrinha production was also reduced to 87.3 million mt, a 0.8% loss when compared to the 88 million mt projection from February.

The new figure is 14.7% lower than the 2022/22 102 million mt record crop.

Brazil's total corn crop area was cut by 0.4% to 20.36 million ha from last month’s 20.4 million ha estimates, an 8.6% decline when compared to the 22.26 million ha sowed in the previous crop year.

The summer crop area was slightly increased to 3.9 million ha, a 1% gain from the previous estimate, but down 10.7% from 2022/23's 4.4 million ha.

The second corn crop safrinha area was trimmed to 15.75 million ha, a 0.8% decline from last month’s 15.87 million ha projection and is 8.3% below the 17.2 million ha planted in 2022/23.

Conab kept its 2024 corn export estimates unchanged at 32 million mt.

That compares to a record 55.5 million mt exports in 2023.