Brazil soybean rally fades, sellers retain beans on Trump trade talk

Soybean prices in Brazil eased Monday after a two-and-a-half-week rally, but sources say talk of a trade war is making farmers wary of selling.

Soybeans in the paper Paranagua market for April loading changed hands at 86 cents per bushel over May’s exchange contract on Monday versus 88 cents last week.

While that decrease is marginal, it represents the first daily fall since February 22 – when prices were pegged at 50 cents over May futures.

Camilo Motter, a broker with Brazil-based Granoeste, said that despite a weaker market on Monday, premiums could rise once again as the market waits to see whether China will take retaliatory action over US taxes on steel and aluminium imports.

“I think there are a bunch of Trump’s decisions that is weighing on the market's behaviour. Brazilian farmers are paying attention and asking more in order to sell,” he told Agricensus.

Data released Monday by the farm economics institute (IMEA) of Mato Grosso, which produces around 30% of all Brazil’s soybean, said farmer selling stood at 62% of this season’s crop by the end of February, down 9% on the previous year.

Meanwhile, other brokers said that bids and offers were hard to come by with sellers seeking bids and buyers seeking offers, both with little success.

“It seems that no one knows what’s going to happen next month,” said Eduardo Felau, a broker with Zairam Commodities.

Offers of full 60,000-mt cargoes out of Santos for late April were heard at 90 cents over May futures late Monday.

That price is flat to the paper market, which deals in smaller volumes, and sources say it could be a sign that the bull run has at least stalled.

Nevertheless, March loadings look healthy with the vessel line up showing 8.6 million mt are to load.