Brazil to harvest 131.8m mt of corn; record soybean export: Conab

Brazil’s food agency (Conab) increased its estimate for the country's total corn output to 131.8 million mt in 2022/23 while wheat production and soybean exports also rose to record levels in its monthly report on Wednesday.

Conab's estimate for Brazil's total grain and soybean production rose to 322.7 million mt, 0.8% higher than the previous report projection and an 18.4% increase from 2021/22's 272.6 million mt production.

The country’s planted area was pegged at 78.5 million mt, 0.2% above August’s report and 5.3% higher than 2021/22’s 74.5 million ha.  

Corn

Conab increased its estimate for Brazil’s total corn output by 1.5% from the previous report's 129.9 million mt estimate, up 16.6% year-over-year and a record.

The adjustment reflects the new projection for the corn crop safrinha, now seen at 102.16 million mt, a 2% increase from the previous 100.18 million mt forecast and 18.9% higher than the last crop’s 85.8 million mt output.

Summer corn crop estimates remained unchanged at 27.3 million mt, a 9.4% increase from last year’s 25 million mt.

Conab raised once again its total corn area projection to 22.2 million ha up 0.3% from 22.1 million mt estimates from August, and 3.2% from last crop’s 21.5 million ha.

Corn export estimates remained projected at 50 million mt versus last year’s 46.6 million mt.

Ending stocks rose to 12.2 million mt from the 10.5 million mt forecast from last month’s report while in 2022 it reached 8 million mt.

Domestic consumption projections climbed to 79.6 million mt, up 164,000 mt from the 79.4 million previous forecasts, while in 2022 consumption totaled 74.5 million mt.

Soybean

Brazil’s soybean output remained unchanged at 154.6 million, 23.1% higher than the 125.5 million mt seen in 2021/22.

The soybean sown area was also stable at 44.06 million ha, a 6.2% rise from the last crop’s 41.5 million ha.

Export estimates rose to 96.9 million mt from August's 95.6 million mt estimates, 23.1% higher than the 78.7 million mt seen last year.

Domestic crush remained unchanged at 52.8 million, up 10.5% on the year.

Ending stocks were cut to 5.8 million mt from last month’s 7.1 million mt, while in 2021/22 they totaled 4.7 million mt.

Wheat

Brazil’s wheat production estimates rose 3.9% from August’s report to a record 10.9 million mt, 2.5% higher than 2022’s 10.5 million mt crop.

Planted area estimates are now pegged at 3.45 million mt, a 0.6% increase from the previous report, and an 11.8% increase on the year.

Conab cut Brazil’s wheat import projection by 200,000 mt from the previous report to 5 million mt, while the country imported 4.5 million mt last year.

The wheat export projection remained unchanged at 2.6 million mt versus 2022’s 2.65 million mt.  

Ending stocks rose to 1.3 million mt from August’s 1.2 million mt forecast, and above last year’s 682,800 mt.

Domestic consumption projection was pegged at 12.6 million mt, higher than the 2.4 million mt from 2022, which was the level projected in August for the current year.