Brazil to harvest 142.8m mt of soybeans, 117.2m mt of corn: Conab

Brazil is expected to produce142.8 million mt of soybeans and 117.2 million mt of corn in the 2021/22 marketing year, the country’s food agency Conab showed in its third 2021/22 crop estimates report released Thursday.

The country’s soybean and corn output will increase 4% and 34.6% on the year, respectively, the agency said.

Conab raised its 2021/22 soybean output estimates mt from its previous forecast by 780,000 million mt, with just a 0.2% rise in acreage to 40.3 million hectares and 0.4% in yield to 3,539 kilogrammes per hectare.

Corn production was also upgraded by 470,000 mt compared to the previous report with slight increases in acreage to 20.9 million hectares and expected yields, to 5,596 kilogrammes per hectare.

The second corn crop safrinha is expected to reach 86.2 million mt, up 42% on the year, while for the first crop, Conab expects a 29 million mt production, which is up 17.6% on the year.

Despite concerns about drought in Rio Grande do Sul state, the volume forecast for the first corn crop is up 1.6% from the last report.

The country’s total grain output is expected to reach 291.1 million mt, a 15% yearly increase. Acreage is expected to be 72 million mt, up 4.2% on the year.

“We expect a record crop due to increased yields for soybeans and corn, as the producers had better margins and were able to increase investment in the crop while planting happened at the right time,” Conab's director Sergio De Zen said.

“But we cannot neglect problems in the Rio Grande do Sul state, even if they are not as big as last year. These factors are considered within our new forecast,” De Zen added.

The director warned that if January and February get high levels of rain, it could delay the soybean harvest and the sowing of corn, which could compromise its yields.

Supply and demand

Conab expects Brazil to crush 48,5 million mt of beans in 2022, a 100,000 mt yearly increase and 143,000 mt above its previous report. 

Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 90.7 million mt in 2022, up from last month’s 89.9 million mt forecasts, due to higher availability and strong demand.

For 2021, the agency increased its forecast to 85.8 million mt versus 84.4 million mt estimated in October, and a 3.3% increase on the year.

Soyoil exports are expected to reach 1.6 million mt in 2021 versus 1.4 million mt previously estimated, due to firm export volume in November and expectations of high exports in December.

“Usually, it is not expected a significant increase in soybean oil in the last two months of the calendar year, however, with the expected reduction in the biodiesel mixture to B10, the industries increased their exports,” Conab stated.

For 2022, Conab also increased its estimates from 1.1 million mt to 1.5 million mt.

The country’s domestic corn consumption estimates are up 1% versus the previous report, to 76.8 million mt in 2021/22 and 6.2% higher on the year.

For 2021/22, consumption is expected to reach 72.3 million mt, up 5.3% on the year, supported by the high exports volume from the animal protein industry and the increase in the consumption of corn for ethanol production.

Corn exports estimates were reduced to 19.2 million mt estimated for 2020/21, below last report’s 20 million mt forecast and last year’s 34.9 million mt volume.

The decrease is the result of smaller production in 2020/21 due to drought.
For 2021/22, the forecast was kept at a record 36.7 million mt.

Conab increased its 2020/21 corn import estimates from last month’s 2.3 million mt forecast to 2.7 million mt.

The volumes were remained unchanged at 900,000 mt for 2021/22.