Bumper Brazil soy crop to provide “comfortable supply”: AMIS

The upcoming Brazil crop is set to provide “an overall comfortable soybean supply situation for several months,” despite the ongoing Sino-US trade dispute and a damaged Argentina crop, AMIS said in their monthly supply and demand update Thursday.

However, end stocks for the current 2017/18 season took a big hit, cut by 5.3 million mt to 42 million mt, an 18% reduction on the year.

Considering the growing global rise in protein demand, the stocks-to-use ratio is set to fall to just 12% at the start of 2018/19, indicating the world will have only six weeks of demand in store versus the two-month buffer held at the start of the 2017/18 marketing year.

Global traded soybean volume in 2017/18 was pegged at 154 million mt, broadly unchanged on the month, as “higher exports by Brazil are expected to compensate for lower shipments from Argentina and Uruguay”.

Total global production was trimmed by 8.4 million mt on the back of the drought-damaged Argentinian crop, bringing it to 336.8 million mt, 3% less on the year.

Global corn production was lifted to 1.087 billion mt on a higher EU crop, but improved feed demand from EU and South America will increase consumption further, reducing end stocks to 247.2 million mt, down 5.7 million mt from last month’s view.

Wheat global production was marginally lifted to 757.4 million mt, just 0.3% below the 2016 record, while consumption was increased to 736.4 million mt on higher demand from the EU and Russia.

The 2018/19 opening stocks are pegged at 272 million mt, down just 0.7 million mt from last month’s report.

Early indications show lower global corn and wheat availability, yet record-high stocks are “likely to keep global supplies adequate in 2018/19”.