CASH MARKET WRAP: Wheat and beans rise, corn flat
Wheat
A bullish week for wheat pushed global cash and futures prices higher as evidence emerged that June’s heatwave across Europe and the Black Sea cut quality and yields, with buying largely limited to state-backed tenders for delivery through August-September.
On the Black Sea, Russian 12.5% wheat ratcheted up $3.50/mt to $192.50/mt FOB Novorossiysk as analysts cut their forecast for this year’s crop, while 11.5% ticked $3/mt higher to $186/mt FOB.
Prices rose $4/mt over the week in the Ukrainian feed wheat market to $181/mt FOB panamax ports, with buyers staying away as harvest pressure failed to weigh on the market after questions were asked about the size of this year’s low protein crop.
A futures spike towards the tail end of the week did little to stimulate demand for US cargoes that are generally out of the money delivered everywhere but regular destinations, with 11% HRW up $5.25/mt to $215/mt FOB Gulf and SWW up $6.25/mt to $237.75/mt FOB PNW.
APW prices in Australia dipped $5/mt over the week to $230.75/mt FOB Kwinana as inland bid levels were lowered, while in Argentina nearby prices remained static at $242/mt FOB Up River.
Corn
Prices over the course of the week largely stabilised after the rollercoaster that has followed US corn planting, with physical market activity limited as market sources eyed the July update of the USDA’s Wasde report.
With feed wheat and soybean meal still pricing competitively, corn activity was limited, but data released through the week showed the US export programme kicking back into gear after weather woes slammed logistics.
Any recovery, however, was snuffed out as tropical storms lashed the US Gulf and saw CIF and FOB premiums push higher, with the upward price move then compounded by a Wasde report that pushed wheat, and latterly corn, higher.
Argentina’s FOB Up River market showed signs of weakening over the week before the end of week price rise took all corn prices higher – FOB Up River rising from $180/mt to end at $181/mt, equating to a 20 cent premiums over the September contract.
US Gulf FOB prices also firmed relative to the rest of the complex, pushing higher by 50 cents having started the week $16.75/mt above Argentina, but ending it $18.25/mt higher as weather worries returned.
Soybeans
Futures started the week on shaky ground following a three-month low reached last Friday. But USDA crop progress data showed less than expected of the new crop was in good-to-excellent condition, lifting the market Tuesday.
Thursday's Wasde provided a slight boost following a sharper than expected forecast for 2019/20 ending stocks.
By Thursday, the August contract closed at $8.99/bu, up 23 c/bu on Friday’s close of $8.76/bu
In Brazil, a flurry of activity took place in the paper Paranagua market on Wednesday with at least seven deals concluded, including five for the new crop from March to July.
But following this a stronger real, hitting the highest level since March, stymied farmer selling with most old crop already contracted.
Full cargoes on a FOB Santos basis hit $365.25/mt for August loading by Thursday, having hit the lowest level since the end of May on Wednesday of 358.50/mt.
The APM-6 China price was assessed 188 c/bu over August futures on Friday, equating to $399.50/mt, the highest level in two weeks.