Conab cuts Brazil soybean output to 155.3m mt, corn to 117.6m mt

Brazilian food agency Conab slashed its soybean crop estimates by 3.1% to 155.3 million mt and cut its corn output projection by 0.8% to 117.6 million mt in a monthly update published Wednesday.

In December, Conab pegged the country’s soybean crop at 160.2 million mt. while corn output was estimated at 118.5 million mt.

Once again, the weather woes weighed on the country's forecast, which did not take into account the recent rainy days that are expected to soften the impacts of the earlier lack of rain on crops. 

Poorly distributed rainfall and high temperatures harmed both planting and crop development, the agency said.

In addition to high volumes of rain in the south, these weather setbacks delayed sowing.

The country's total oilseeds and grain production is now projected at 306.4 million mt, a 1.9% decline from last month’s 312.3 million mt estimates and down 4.2% from the 319.8 million mt record for 2022/23.

The weather conditions have also prompted some producers to switch to other crops, leading to a reduction in the area compared to December’s report, Conab added.

The country’s planted area was pegged at 78.7 million ha, 0.1% below the previous report and 0.3% higher than the 78.5 million ha sown in the 2022/23 crop season.

Soybean

The new soybean estimate is 4.2% lower than the initial 162 million mt forecast.

But the soybean production estimates are also 0.4% higher than 2022/23's 154.6 million mt record crop.

Brazil's sown area estimates are 0.1% lower than December’s projection at 45.2 million ha, a 2.7% increase from the 44.1 million ha area sown in 2022/23.

Yield estimates dropped by 3% on the month to 3,431 kilos/ha from the previous 3,535 kilos/ha projection and are 2.2% down year over year.

Conab lowered Brazil's 2024 soybean export estimates to 98.45 million mt from 101.5 million mt last month, which represents a 3.2% year-on-year drop.

In 2023, Brazil exported a record 101.8 million mt, above the 100 million mt projected last month and a 29.3% gain when compared to the 78.7 million mt sent abroad in 2022.

Brazil's 2024 soybean crushing estimates remained unchanged at 54.3 million mt.

The 2023 final figure reached 52.1 million mt, slightly above the 52 million mt projected in December, and 9.2% above the 47.7 million mt processed in 2022.

Brazil’s 2024 soymeal production forecast rose to 41.1 million mt from December’s 41 million mt projection.

In 2023, soymeal output amounted to 40.6 million mt, above the 40 million mt previous projection and up 8.2% from the 37.5 million mt production from 2022.

Soymeal exports forecast for the current year remained unchanged at 21.5 million mt.

In 2023, shipments totaled 22.6 million mt, surpassing 2022’s 20.3 million mt volume by 11.3%, while last month, exports were pegged at 21.6 million.  

Conab kept its soyoil output estimates unchanged at 10.7 million mt in 2024.

Last year’s production amounted to 10.5 million mt, a 12.9% gain from the 9.3 million mt seen in 2022.  

Soyoil 2024 export projection was trimmed to 1.5 million mt from the previous 1.6 million mt forecast.

In 2023, shipments totaled 2.3 million mt, below the 2.4 million mt projection made in December and the 2.5 million mt shipments from 2022.

Corn

Conab's new estimates for Brazil’s corn crop production in 2023/24 are 10.9% lower than last year’s crop record of 131.9 million mt.

Last month’s estimate was 119 million mt.

The agency cut its summer crop output estimate by 3.7% to 24.38 million mt from last month’s 25.3 million mt.

The new figure is 10.9% below the 27.37 million mt harvested in 2022/23.

Second crop safrinha production remained unchanged at 91.2 million mt, down 10.9% year over year.

Brazil's total corn area is now seen at 21 million ha from last month’s 21.1 million ha estimates, a 5.6% loss from 2022/23's 22.26 million ha.

The summer crop area was cut to 3.9 million ha, a 1.6% loss from the previous 4 million ha projection, down by 10.7% from 2022/23's 4.4 million ha.

The second corn crop safrinha area was unchanged at 16.4 million ha, 4.5% lower than the 17.2 million ha sown in 2022/23.  

Brazil sent abroad a record 56 million mt of corn in 2023, becoming the world’s biggest exporter, a 20.2% gain from the 46.6 million mt shipments from 2022.  

Conab reduced this year’s shipment projection to 35 million mt from the 38 million mt previously estimated.

Brazil's domestic demand forecast for 2024 was slightly reduced to 84.3 million mt from last month’s 84.5 million mt projection.

That compares to 79.6 million mt in 2023, a 5.9% year-over-year increase.