Corn area to drop further in Ukraine for 2024, soybeans rise: ministry

Ukrainian producers are expected to cut further the area planted with corn but continue to increase those with oilseeds, especially soybeans and barley, a Ukrainian agriculture ministry survey showed Tuesday.

According to the survey, up to 70% of farmers interviewed plan to increase the areas planted with soybeans, which is equivalent to around a 21% increase compared with the 2023 year spring campaign.

In 2023, the industry was also estimating an increase in soybeans, however, according to official agriculture ministry data, the planting was done on 97% of the planned areas with almost 1.8 million ha given to soybeans.

That was still almost a 19% increase compared with the soybean planted area seen in 2022.

In addition to soybeans, farmers continue to prioritize the whole oilseeds sector, with the expectation that the fields planted with oilseeds will increase by 11% year on year.

Farmers said they also are considering increasing the areas planted with spring rapeseeds by 24%, spring barley by up to 7%, and spring wheat by 2%.

In 2023, farmers planted 822,000 ha with spring barley – 79% of the planned areas and almost a 21% drop compared to areas completed in 2022.

The area planted with spring wheat in 2023 was seen at 280,000 ha, almost in line with the result seen in 2022.

No information about the areas planted with spring rapeseed in 2023 was available, thus Agricensus understands it was too small to report, as most of the rapeseed production in Ukraine comes from winter plantings. 

Meanwhile, the areas planted with corn are projected to drop further by around 9% in 2024.

The industry expects this, as the profitability of growing corn is dropping along with the prices for that commodity.

"Now corn cultivation is unprofitable, wheat is somewhere around zero and oil crops profit is at low levels,” a local analyst said.

In 2023, the areas planted with corn were slightly above 4 million ha, which was 112% of the initial ministry plan but also almost a 7% drop compared with what was sown in 2022.

In terms of sunflower seeds, the Ukrainian farmers have not yet decided if they will cut the area planted with this crop, but it cannot be excluded.

In the spring campaign of 2023, farmers planted 5.3 million ha with sunflower seeds, which was 94% of the plan, but also only a 6% drop compared to 2022.

Ukraine is still unable to continue planting on up to 25% of its territories, as they are still under Russian occupation or are too close to the front lines.