DATA: Ukraine, US dominate in busy year for China’s corn imports

China’s corn imports in the 2020 calendar year have already reached 6.3 million mt from the US and Ukraine, making it one of the busiest years on record with a quarter of the year still to run, Agricensus analysis of data from the USDA, shipping line ups and customs shows.

Officially, most outlooks for Chinese corn imports span marketing years, but the country’s corn import quota is aligned with the calendar year and allows for the duty-free import of up to 7.2 million mt.

The data shows Ukraine is still the biggest exporter of corn to China, with 3.8 million mt already sailed through the year-to-date and the exodus peaking in May and June when 890,000 mt and 846,000 mt of corn left the country’s ports, according to line up data.

That move was augmented by a ramp up in exports from the US, with China’s 2020 buying first evident in the week of April 27, when just 636 mt of corn was inspected for export in the US interior container market, according to USDA data.

Up until that point, most of China’s US coarse grain buying had revolved around sorghum, with the week of May 18 bought the first signs of volume, with 129,568 mt inspected at the US Gulf, rising to 277,000 mt of US corn inspected in June.

Since then, across the primary export routes of the US Gulf, Pacific Northwest, and the interior container market, some 2.5 million mt of US corn has been inspected for export, taking the calendar year total to at least 6.3 million mt.

On top of that, the balance of the US 2020/21 marketing year shows total commitments for the September 1 through August 31 marketing year at 9.9 million, with 9.2 million mt still to be shipped in the months ahead.

With at least 225,000 mt of corn still expected to load in October from Ukraine’s ports, the US net sales and further Black Sea volumes all but guarantee that China’s corn imports will surge past the current forecast levels without factoring in smaller volume exports from Russia or other players.

Marketing year high?

The USDA has pegged China’s 2019/20 and 2020/21 marketing year corn imports consistently at 7 million mt at least since May when it rolled out its 2020/21 estimate.

Since then, the Chinese counterpart – the Casde – increased its own import outlook by 2 million mt at its September update, to align with the Wasde’s 7 million mt estimate.

And historically, with 6.3 million mt already sailed or on the water, it is highly likely that China’s corn imports are already at or have surpassed previous marketing year highs.

The USDA’s Production, Supply and Distribution service lists the 2015/16 marketing year as the most active for China’s imports over the last fifty years, with 5.5 million mt imported.

On a marketing year basis, the Agricensus Export Dashboard lists October, November and December corn exports to China at 1.4 million mt, with the January through July period adding another 5 million mt.

Analysis of line up and US export inspection data adds another 994,000 mt, delivering a 2019/20 marketing year total of 7.4 million mt.