Drought impact reflects negative outlook expected in the Maghreb: MARS

The EU’s crop monitoring service reviewed its 2023 yield expectations for wheat crops across the North African area, down 15-24% compared to the five-year average, while barley is expected to see a 10-30% decline.

Morocco and Algeria saw the lion’s share of the decline owing to the impact of a seasonal drought through February and March.

According to the February report published by Monitoring Agriculture Resources (MARS), the hot, dry conditions caused a 20-30 days delay in planting, in addition to the lowest sown area in Morocco for ten years, leaving little room for good yield expectations if rainfall does not arrive in the coming weeks.

As a result, the EU is forecasting Morocco’s 2023 wheat yield at 1.49 mt/ha, while the corresponding barley yield is forecast at 0.93 mt/ha.

In Algeria, persistent dry conditions in September-November, especially in the Northwest regions of Tlemcen, Sido Bel Abbes, and Mascara, also hampered the start of the sowing season, with further rain needed to sustain crops and avoid further damage to production.

The EU subsequently forecasts the country’s 2023 wheat yield at 1.30 mt/ha, while the corresponding barley yield is forecast at 1.10 mt/ha.

In other parts of North Africa, the outlook for the 2022 crop remains more positive, with favorable temperatures and average rainfall supporting above-average expectations for wheat and barley output in Egypt and Libya.

In Egypt, average yields for wheat are forecast at 6.80 mt/ha, 4% above the five-year average, while barley yields are forecast at 3.91 mt/ha, up 3%.