EU’s MARS expected exceptionally high Russian wheat production at 95 MMT

The European Union’s crop monitoring agency has become the latest international consultancy to weigh in on Russia’s upcoming wheat crop, citing favourable weather, increased planted area and strong yields as key elements in delivering a record wheat production outlook.

The agency has called total wheat production of just shy of 95 million mt, a 25% increase on the previous year on the back of a 3% increase in planted area and a 21% increase in yield.

Much of the production, 70 million mt, is winter wheat, a 31% increase on the previous year and 22% above the five-year average.

Part of the increase in wheat planting came at the expense of barley, and the Monitoring Agricultural Resources (MARS) unit reported a 2% year-on-year decline in barley plantings.

However, the beneficial conditions have also supported barley yields, contributing to a 20% jump versus last year to deliver total production a whisker over 21.6 million mt – up 18%.

While confirming the size of the production, the agency did not comment on the potential quality of the crop – with some analysts expecting their to be a higher proportion of feed wheat among the output.

Finally, along with much of Europe and North America, the hot, dry conditions have played havoc with corn yields and production outlooks, despite an uptick in the planted area.

Farmers sewed 10% more land than the five year average, and while yields and production were both up, the yield increased by only 5% versus last year with production rising 6%.

Production forecasts September 22

(MARS)