EU28 wheat 2018/19 opening stocks to swell 50%: EC

Sluggish wheat exports during the current season will cause a 5 million mt, or 50%, rise in opening stocks at the start of next season, the EC said in its Agricultural Outlook, although customs data indicates an even higher growth.

Stocks at the start of the 2018/19 season are anticipated at 15.3 million mt, up from 10.1 million mt in July 2017, EC data showed, as wheat exports will fall 9% from last season, the EC said.

“EU wheat exporters are facing fierce competition from Russian and Argentinian wheat, which are exporting to Egypt and Morocco, thanks to high supplies and favourable exchange rates.”

By April 4, the EU had exported 14.5 million mt, down 25% down on the same point last year, custom data showed, although the EC expects final exports in the season ending June to hit 23 million mt.

To achieve that, average monthly exports would have to increase to 2.83 million mt in the next three months, up from an average pace of 1.6 million mt in the first nine months of the marketing year.

Corn opening stocks up 4.3m mt

Like wheat, corn will experience a similar rise in stocks, moving from 17.4 million mt in 2017 to 21.7 million mt at the start of 2018/19, on the back of a fall in consumption, as feed demand shifts to oilseeds, and a 10% rise in imports.

Production in 2017/18 will come in at 65.5 million mt, 4% above the five-year, with the highest increase seen in France, and will fall back in 2018/19 as yields return to the long-term average.

Barley stocks are expected so see a slight increase from 5.6 million mt to 5.9 million mt at the start of 2018/19, as production recovers to 62 million mt, after a damaged 2017/18 crop which came in 4% under the five-year average.

The 2017/18 and 2018/19 durum balance sheets are nearly identical, with a total EU28 products for the upcoming season at 8.9 million mt with stocks at 2.8 million mt.