FranceAgriMer raises export forecast for soft wheat outside the EU to 10.6m mt

French state-backed farm agency FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU once again in its latest monthly outlook Wednesday, while revising exports to within the EU lower.

FranceAgriMer raised forecast exports to countries outside the EU by 300,000 mt on last month to 10.6 million mt, which is 21% higher than last year, while it lowered its estimated exports again to EU member states by 90,000 mt to 6.64 million mt (down 17% y-o-y).

France exported 7.5 million mt of wheat between July 1, 2022 and January 16, 2023, according to data received from the European Commission.

FranceAgriMer had already raised it's export forecast for soft wheat last month, noting there had been a sharp increase in exports to Morocco and China.

In a briefing to accompany the release of the monthly report, the agency noted that in addition to this, French wheat was now looking more competitive for sales into Algeria and Egypt.

Overall wheat exports are expected at 17.63 million mt, up 2.5% from 2022/23.

French soft wheat ending stocks are expected at 2.32 million mt, a decrease from the December estimate, which would put them 16% below the 2.77 million mt that was held last season.

FranceAgriMer forecast for intra-EU barley exports saw a minimal decrease from last month’s figures, lowering by 15,000 mt to 3.04 million mt (up 8.1% y-o-y), similar exports outside the EU also decreased by 50,000 mt to 2.45 million mt (down 27.5% y-o-y).

French corn exports in 2022/23 to the EU decreased slightly on month to just over 2.96 million mt, down 39.5% y-o-y, while expected exports to countries outside the EU went unchanged on the month, remaining at 360,000 mt (down 39% y-o-y).

Overall corn exports are expected to fall on the year to 3.43 million (down 38.7% y-o-y) from its 2021 figure of 5.6 million mt.  

French durum export estimates to the EU increased to 820,000 mt, while non-EU exports were unchanged at 110,000 mt.

This reflects a reduction of 17.1% y-o-y from 989,000 mt for exports to the EU last year and an increase of 16.8% y-o-y from 94,000 mt for third countries.