FranceAgriMer sees wheat exports increasing by 3% in 2022/23

French state-backed farm agency FranceAgriMer has released its first view of the 2022/23 marketing year, expecting that French soft wheat exports will increase to countries outside the EU and decrease within the bloc, in a monthly outlook released Wednesday.

FranceAgriMer estimates exports to outside the EU for the 2022/23 marketing year at 10.3 million mt, mainly to Maghreb countries and Morocco in particular, which is 17% more year on year, taking the forecast for total French wheat exports to 17.4 million mt, a 3% increase year-on-year.

Exports to fellow EU member states are expected to fall and were pegged at 7 million mt, down 12% on 2021/22.

More Ukrainian wheat flows to the EU could cause a reduction in exports within the bloc, freeing up more export capacity for French wheat.

Marc Zribi, head of the FranceAgriMer unit for grains and sugar, noted that 2022/23 had got off to a very strong start for France, with sales of around 530,000 mt to Egypt alone end of June/early July.

He said Ukraine was still experiencing difficulties exporting as Black Sea ports remain blocked, and was cautious about the results of current four-way talks between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN in Turkey today.

“We’ll have to wait to see the conditions each side puts on deblocking Ukrainian ports,” Zribi said.

On the 2022/23 crop, FranceAgriMer said it expected a decent level in general but wide differences from one region to another.

"Rain arrived very late and only benefitted some regions," said Benoit Pietrement, president of the special council for field crops. "As a result, there will be a big difference in production between the regions."

Soft wheat production is estimated at 32.9 million mt, down 7.2% year-on-year due to a combined decline in the planted area (down 5.6%) and yield (6.9 mt/ha compared to 7.1 mt/ha in 2021).