IGC revises 2017/2018 grain harvest upwards

Total volume of grain produced in the 2017/2018 harvest will be 2.079 billion mt, according to the latest forecast from the International Grain Council (IGC), up 4 million mt from its October estimate, but down 3% on the year.

The revision was triggered by the higher than expected corn harvest in the United States, the association said, with corn production now expected at 1.04 billion mt, up 6 million mt.

The soybean production estimate was unchanged at 348 million mt with wheat 1 million mt higher at 749 million mt. With rice production estimated at 42 million mt, the harvest will be the second highest on record.

On the demand side, corn is now expected to reach 1.069 billion mt, up 2 million mt from its previous estimate, and exceeding supply by a chunky 29 million mt, it is unlikely to have an impact on price due to stocks of 206 million mt.

“While this would be the first contraction in five years (-28m t y/y), inventories are expected to be the second largest ever,” the report released Thursday said.

While soybean production was unchanged, the association now expects consumption to fall to 352 million mt, down 1 million mt on its previous estimate, but still at a record high with global trade also at a record high.

Global soybean stocks are expected to end at 41 million mt, down from 45 million mt at the end of the last harvest.

“World import demand is predicted to expand by 4%, to a high of 153 million mt, as China’s purchases advance to nearly 100m, with modest increases likely elsewhere, including in the EU. While Brazil’s shipments are expected to be little changed y/y, it should remain the world’s leading exporter,” the report said.

Wheat production and consumption was largely unchanged, with production exceeding consumption by 7 million mt, causing stocks to rise by the same amount to a record of 249 million mt.