Russia's wheat export pace rises by 33% to 1 m mt, YTD 15m mt, up 59%

Russian wheat exports from Black Sea ports increased pace by 30% to 1 million mt in the week ending October 4, Agricensus analysis of port line-up data showed Thursday.

However, wheat export flows are still expected to fall in October against a backdrop of declining sales by Russian exporters due to falling demand from major importing countries, and an unofficial floor price for Russian wheat that does not help trade and has limited sales in tenders.

The forecast for wheat exports in October 2023 is about 4.5 million mt, lower than the record 5.5 million mt in September and lower than a year ago when exports amounted to 4.9 million mt, according to Rusagrotrans.

Total wheat exports, including rail and small port shipments, have now moved to around 15 million mt, which is 59% higher than last year.

Egypt was the biggest importer of wheat in the repoting week with 176,273 mt headed there, followed by Bangladesh with 163,583 mt, and Iran with 111,200 mt.

Some 67,000 mt meanwhile was exported to Oman, 64,500 mt to Italy, 55,500 mt to Indonesia, 55,000 mt to Yemen, 54,993 mt to Turkey, and 53,000 mt to Israel.

In addition, 52,976 mt of wheat was exported to Pakistan, 38,500 mt to Angola, 34,000 mt to Libya, 30,600 mt to Brazil, and 22,000 mt to Spain, while the destination for 45,500 mt was not specified.

Official Russian statistical office Rosstat estimated wheat stocks at 28.8 million mt as of September 1, 9% lower than the same date last year, when stocks were at a record level for post-Soviet times.

The main reason for the decrease in stocks was the record export in the new season.

Sovecon estimates exports in 2023/24 at 48.9 million mt, 2 million mt more than a year earlier.

It was also affected by the worsening of forecasts for the wheat harvest, which the company estimates at 91.6 million mt against 104.2 million mt a year earlier due to less favorable weather conditions.

Analysts also suggest that wheat quality could be the lowest since 2018 when the share of milling wheat fell to 70% due to rains, while in 2022, the final share of milling wheat was around 80%.