Russian weekly wheat exports slow to 400k mt on bad weather

The pace of Russian wheat exports slowed to 378,208 mt to the week ending February 15, as stormy weather across the Black Sea delayed shipments and slowed exports, Agricensus' analysis of data on the Black Sea port lineup showed.

During the reporting week, wheat volumes from four Russian deep-sea ports (Novorossiysk, Kavkaz, Taman, and Tuapse) reached 378,208 mt, including 77,950 mt heading to Turkey, 68,500 mt to Sudan, and about 50,000 mt each was listed as heading to Yemen, Pakistan, Kenya, Tanzania, and Mexico.

Furthermore, port line-up data showed about 1.4 million mt of Russian wheat currently loading and set to sail.

The data does not list any destination for most of the declared volumes of 775,100 mt, while Egypt was reported as the destination for 191,000 mt of wheat, Turkey for 101,200 mt, Yemen for 80,000 mt, and about 60,000 mt each was listed as heading to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, and Libya.

Line-ups seen by Agricensus only give shipments via the Black Sea, which have amounted to 23.2 million mt since the start of the 2022/23 marketing year in July 2022.

Overall, factoring in all ports and land exports, the volume has reached approximately 27.4 million mt - 22% above last year's total export figure.

Local analysts have increased their estimate of total marketing year exports by 100,000 mt against a backdrop of a weakening ruble and high demand from importers, raising the projection to 44.2 million mt of wheat.

It is expected wheat exports will hit a record high in the period from February through June, in what is usually the tail end of the marketing year.

That pace will be supported by the weaker ruble and generally favorable conditions for exporters due to record domestic stocks and current strong demand from importers.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has set the forecast for Russian grain exports in the 2022/23 marketing year to between 55-60 million mt, up from 50 million mt.

For wheat exclusively, the export potential was estimated at 39.5 million mt.

That also comes as from February 15 the grain export quota at 25 million mt came into force, meaning from now through to the end of the marketing year, only this volume is expected to be exported without incurring additional charges.

The restrictions will be in effect until June 30 and do not apply to grain supplies to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).