US Climate Prediction Center sees La Nina strengthen to over 80% likely

The US Climate Prediction Center now rates the likelihood of a weak-to-moderate La Nina event at over 80% according to its latest monthly update, published Thursday, with the effect likely to be felt through the Northern Hemisphere winter period through to late spring 2018.

The report highlights the strengthening in the phenomenon, indicated by “an increasingly prominent parent of below-average sea surface temperatures” in the central and eastern Pacific equatorial region.

La Nina, and its counterpart El Nino, are characterised by changing water temperatures across a central band of the Pacific Ocean, with a knock-on impact that is often felt in terms of pronounced drought or heavier rains and flooding affecting regions of the world.

“The outlooks generally favour above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States,” the report says.

For South America, El Nino’s typically spell hotter, drier periods across the southern regions of Argentina and south Brazil – regions that have already seen pronounced dryness in recent weeks and from where substantial corn and soybean crops are also planted.

The concerns around dry weather has done much to support soybean prices, although recent rainfall has contributed to a softer tone for CBOT soybean futures contracts.