US agricultural 2023 exports forecast 1% under record 2022

US agricultural exports for fiscal year 2023 are projected at $193.5 billion, down from a record $196 billion forecast for 2022, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) August release of its "Outlook for US Agricultural Trade" quarterly report.

According to the report, the "decrease is primarily driven by lower exports of cotton, beef, and sorghum that are partially offset by higher exports of soybeans and horticultural products."

Total grain and feed exports are forecast down $1.3 billion at $46.5 billion on lower sorghum, wheat, and corn exports, despite higher rice exports.

Sorghum exports are forecast at $2 billion, down $700 million, on lower supplies available for the export market.

Wheat exports are forecast at $7.8 billion, down $300 million on lower unit values.

Corn exports are forecast at $19.1 billion, down just $100 million from 2022 on slightly lower volumes as competition from South America is expected to be strong.

Meanwhile, soybean exports are forecast up $2.2 billion at a record $35.2 billion on higher prices, strong domestic crush, and increased competition from Brazil.

Ethanol exports are unchanged from the 2022 fiscal year at $4.2 billion.

"Although US corn feedstock cost is expected to remain elevated, lower cost of natural gas helps maintain ethanol plant profitability if ethanol prices retreat in line with expected softening in oil prices," the report details.

Agricultural exports to China ($36 billion), Canada ($28.5 billion) and Mexico ($28.5 billion) are all also unchanged.

Imports

Total agricultural imports for the 2023 fiscal year are expected to increase by $5 billion above the 2022 fiscal year forecast to $197 billion, due to higher imports of grains and feed products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical products.

Meanwhile, total imports in 2022 are expected to be $11.5 billion more than the May forecast and $28.7 billion more than fiscal year 2021.

If realized, the 18% increase from 2021 to 2022 would become the largest year-over-year percentage increase since fiscal year 2011, resulting from "the unwavering upward trend of import volumes in the face of increasing unit values for nearly every agricultural import product group."