US bean planting hits 77% as first prevent plant deadlines pass

US soybean plantings are complete on 77% of the expected acreage, in line with analysts’ expectations but still some 16 percentage points behind average planting rates as the first prevent planting deadlines pass, the USDA’s weekly crop progress report showed Monday.

Corn plantings also continued in the week to June 17, taking progress to 92% complete, again in line with expectations in what is widely expected to be the final week that US farmers will risk planting corn.

Big bean-producing states from South Dakota through to Illinois continue to experienced major lags in their planting rates, with the first prevent planting date of June 10 passing for the Dakotas, Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, and June 15 for southern Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan and northern Illinois.

With the next deadline June 20 affecting another batch of US states including southern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, “the total unplanted acres from across all states are 14.7 million acres,” Dave Hightower of the Hightower Report said in a note to clients.

Yield drag

The slow rate of planting comes ahead of Friday's summer solstice - the longest day in the northern hemisphere after which less sunlight hits crops and yield drag can hit production hard.

Research funded by the Nebraska Soybean Board shows that soybeans planted after May 1 lose around 0.25 bu/acre per day in terms of yield, while agronomists say crops planted after the solstice can see losses of up to 1 bu/acre per day.

With rain continuing to dominate the seven-day forecasts, fears of a switch from corn plantings – already hugely delayed by heavy rains – to soybeans have abated.

The number of days suitable for fieldwork in the key states of Illinois and Iowa has shown a marked recovery to 4.8 and 5.3 days respectively, but soil conditions remain close to saturation, with Illinois showing surplus water ratings of 36% for topsoil and 41% for subsoil.

"In any normal year, it would hardly be breathing hard for the US farmer to sow 4% of his beans in any given day, the pace needed to get all of the beans in the ground by Friday," said Charlie Sernatinger, a broker at ED&F Man.

"But this is no normal year, and the weather is not cooperating. In my humble(d) opinion, the market is simply not discounting the possibility of a really stinky yield in beans this year," he said.

Condition

With corn planting now effectively over, focus moves to quality concerns with 79% of the crop emerged – versus a typical 97% – and quality pegged at 59% good or excellent, versus last year’s 78% at this stage and slightly ahead of estimates of around 57%.

Soybean emergence stands at 55%, versus a five-year average of 84%, with next week’s report bringing the first assessment of the crop’s quality.