US export inspections disappoint, wheat misses expectations

Weekly USDA inspection data saw wheat exports fall below analysts’ expectations, while soybeans scraped in at the lower end of estimates and corn at the upper end.

The data underlined the continuing trend that has seen US exports disappoint in the face of stiff competition from other origins.

Wheat export inspections of 274,506 mt surprised analysts, who had been looking for between 400,000 to 600,000 mt when polled ahead of the data release.

The figure was almost half that of the previous week’s export inspections, and some 130,000 mt below the same period of 2016.

Overall, however, total wheat export inspections for the marketing year to date are a million mt below the same point in 2016 – 14.5 million mt versus 15.5 million mt – while for corn and soybean the lag is markedly more pronounced.

Analysts looked to the detail to extract some positive signs, with Advance Insight’s Kelly Herrick noting HRW sales 12% higher than last year and 38% above the 5-year average.

“Thus far, sales to Africa are down 2% versus last year but are 11% above the 5-year average. Sales to Japan are about in line with normal. However, a strong program continues to Other Asia and Oceania: Purchases of 62 million bushels are double last year, more than 2.5 times the 5-year average and a 9-year high,” Herrick said in a research note.

Soybean export inspections to date are 5 million mt shy of the previous year, with corn 7 million mt adrift, according to the data.

Soybean export inspections of 1.13 million mt just caught the bottom rung of market expectations, which had set a range of between 1.1 million and 1.35 million mt, but volumes were down by 100,000 mt versus the previous week and by 450,000 mt versus the previous year.

Overall, through the current marketing year to date, soybean export inspections stack up at 28.3 million mt, versus 33 million mt in 2016.

However, those figures are set against a backdrop of expectations from the USDA that soybean exports will increase this year by 51 million bushels (1.36 million mt).

Corn inspections reached 683,898 mt, just shy of the 700,000 mt ceiling that analysts had put on expectations and well ahead of both last week’s figures and the same period of 2016.