US weather forecasts crimps prospects for corn harvest progress

Weather forecasts for the critical Midwest states of the corn belt anticipate further wind, rain and snow to sweep across the region by the end of the week, the National Weather Service predicts, further hampering an already slow harvest.

By Friday a band of rain is expected to move through the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest with a likelihood of snow following, with rain also likely to extend along the Mississippi Delta and out to the Gulf of Mexico.

That rain is likely to bring with it further delays in harvesting the corn crop, which is already substantially delayed according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

Moreover, as the weather closes in, fears are rising that strong winds may also damage crops that have remained in the fields longer than usual.

The USDA’s Crop Progress report showed that overall progress on harvesting lags well behind the same stage of 2016 and the five-year average. As of the week ending October 22, 38% of the corn crop had been harvested, versus the 2016 and five-year average both of which stand at 59%.

However, the average masks a wide variety of progress, with some states like Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina and Michigan – which have largely been spared difficult weather conditions – on par or ahead of the average progress.

Progress has been much slower in many of the biggest corn producing states with Iowa, the biggest corn-producing state that grew nearly 20% of the US crop in 2016, currently reporting only 23% of its crop harvested, versus an expected the 55% average of 2012-2016.

Minnesota, which grew 10% of the US's total corn grown last year, has harvested 14% versus an anticipated 55%. Both Minnesota and Iowa are forecast to see snow over the weekend 

Wet weather has delayed farmers, who now face a scramble to bring in the crop during gaps in the weather. But it is a race against time, with winter closing in and the Progress Report highlighting that the maturity of the crop is on target at 96%.

Corn condition is also a concern, with 66% of the crop reported to be in good or excellent condition, versus the five year average of 74%. As the crop ages it could become more vulnerable to strong winds while additional weight from snow or heavy rain could damage the stem.