USDA cuts its soybean export outlook 10% for FY2018

The USDA has cut its forecast for soybean exports by $2.1 billion to $22 billion in the current fiscal year as strong export competition from Brazil is expected to hammer exports down to 57.2 million mt from 61.4 million mt last year.

“This year’s slow export pace (of soybeans)... is attributed almost entirely to China. A record Brazil harvest in 2017 resulted in larger exportable supplies being still available during the US primary shipping season,” the report said.

In the last fiscal year, which ended September 2017, soybean sales were worth $24 billion to the US balance of trade.

The news comes as trade tension between China and the US is set to escalate, with President Trump considering slapping import duties on steel and aluminium due to national security issues.

However, according to the American Soybean Association, China is considering reciprocal action and is studying the impact of placing tariffs on soybean imports from the US, which are worth $14 billion mt annually.

The news also comes amid a Brazil crop that is once again expected to top 114 million mt for the second successive year.

In terms of corn, the US is expected to export 51.5 million mt, up 3 million mt on its previous forecast but down around 4 million mt on the previous year.

The move north comes amid a spate of US corn exports.

In terms of wheat, exports are expected to reach 24.9 million mt, down from the USDA’s previous estimate of 26.4 million mt and down from the 2017 fiscal year figure of 28 million mt.