USDA leaves soy yield unchanged in November WASDE report

The USDA left its forecast for the soybean harvest broadly unchanged on Thursday, disappointing bulls and analysts that were predicting a downward revision on poor yields.

The USDA’s influential WASDE report estimated that soybean production in the US would reach 4.425 billion bushels (120 million mt) with an average yield of 49.5 bushels per hectare, slightly down on its October estimate.

Those figures compare with analyst expectations of around 4.41 billion bushels on a yield of 49.3 bushels per hectare.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dipped 10 cents or 1% almost immediate on the news as bulls sought to exit positions.

Exports and ending stocks were unchanged from previous estimates at 2.25 billion bushels, or 61 million mt, for exports and ending stocks of 101 million bushels – around 2.7 million mt.

Global production of soybean is expected to reach 349 million mt, up 1 million mt on a previous estimate, with Brazil accounting for all of the increase due to good moisture levels that contributed to better growing conditions.

Brazil is expected to produce 108 million mt – a figure that up 1 million mt from earlier estimates – while Argentina is estimated to produce 57 million mt – a figure that is 4 million mt or 7.5% higher than the country’s own estimates.

Of those Brazil is expected to export 65 million mt and Argentina 8 million mt.
On the import side China is exported to absorb 97 million mt of supply, slightly higher than Chinese estimates, and up 2 million mt on a previous estimate.

Global ending stocks are expected to reach 96 million mt – around 27% of global production – and up 1.7% on the 2016/2017 year.