USDA soybean, wheat quarterly stocks exceed expectations, corn tighter

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s September quarterly stocks outlook update delivered tighter than expected corn reserves, while both soybean and wheat stocks were slightly higher than projected by market participants.

Corn

Starting with corn, the USDA reported that corn stocks in all positions on September 2023 totaled 1.36 billion bushels, 4.8% below market expectations and 1.1% lower than at the same point last year.

Prior to the report analysts projected that the department would report that reserves would come in at 1.439 million mt.

Of the total stocks, 605 million bushels are stored on farms (up 19% YOY) and 756 million bushels are off-farm stocks (down 13% YOY).

The June-August 2023 indicated disappearance is 2.75 billion bushels, compared with 2.97 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Apparent consumption (or disappearance) is calculated by the difference in stocks at the beginning of each quarter subtracting supplies during the period (production and imports).

Soybean

Soybean stocks on September 1, 2023, totaled 268 million bushels, down 2% from 274 million bushels on September 1, 2022.

The total exceeded the expectations of market participants polled before the report who projected stocks would total 242 million bushels.

On-farm stocks are estimated at 72 million bushels (up 14%), while off-farm stocks were listed at 196 million bushels (down 7%)

Indicated disappearance was at 528 million bushels, down 24% from the same period a year earlier.

Wheat

The USDA reported that stocks stood at 1.78 billion bushels, up by a minimal 0.1% from a year ago, and slightly higher than the 1.77 million projected by market participants before the report’s release.

Durum stocks specifically were at 57 million bushels, up 6% from September 2022.

Wheat stocks being held by farmers are estimated at 598 million bushels, up 1% from last year, while off-farm stocks stood at 1.18 billion bushels, down by less than 1%.

The June-August 2023 indicated disappearance is 614 million bushels, up 8% from the same period a year earlier.