Ukraine 2022/23 production estimated at 67m mt, exports 45m mt

Ukraine is expected to produce 67 million mt of grains and oilseeds in the 2022/23 marketing year, a result that would still be one of the five biggest harvests and export slates of the 30 last years of independence, a note from the ministry of agriculture showed on Monday.

The view comes despite the ongoing war following Russia's invasion of the Black Sea agricultural powerhouse that started in February 2022. 

Ukraine is expected to produce 50-52 million mt of grains and 15-17 million mt of oilseeds, a figure that is significantly higher than domestic consumption - by a factor of at least one and a half time, and rises to almost three times in some products, the ministry data showed.

That means a large proportion of production is expected to be available for export.

The country's wheat crop is already finished at 19 million mt, while domestic usage of both feed and milling wheat together stand at 7.5-8 million mt, which means at least 11 million mt of new crop wheat is available for export.

Barley's domestic consumption stands at around 2.5-3 million mt, which allows 2.5 million mt to be exported, given production of 5.5 million mt.

The corn, sunflower and soybean harvests have only just started, but “it's already possible to expect good yield”, the statement from the ministry said.

"We estimate the domestic consumption of grain and oilseeds at the level of 20-22 million tons. At least 45 million tons of this crop will be exported," Taras Vysotsky, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food said.

"Already from October, the new harvest will take up most of the export. For now, we are exporting the remnants of the previous harvest," Vysotsky said, adding that it's possible that in September alone, Ukrainian agricultural product exports could reach 5.5 million mt - close to pre-war levels.

The news comes against a background of concerns over the grain corridor - the negotiated safe passage from the three main Ukrainian Black Sea deep water ports as agreed to by Russia.

The official agreement, brokered by Turkey's government and the United Nations, is set to end on November 20, while recent comments from the Russian president have been seen as a possible threat over the further continuation of the deal.