Ukraine's Oct grain exports stable at 4.2 mmt, Nov expected to drop

Ukrainian grain exports in October held steady compared to the previous month, reaching 4.2 million mt as around 1.3 million mt of grains left during the final week, data from the agriculture ministry has showed Monday.

However, the picture could change to the upcoming month of November, as trade sources expect volumes to drop significantly after Russia withdrew its support for the grain corridor deal.

As such, it is not yet clear if the already cargoes booked for November loading will be able to move out of the country through the country's three main deep sea ports, while the capacity for the river ports together with truck and rail borders is limited.

During October, corn continued to be the leading export commodity as a total of 2 million mt was exported during the period, pushing the total volume of corn that has left the country since July 1 to 6.8 million mt.

This is more than twice the volume carried at the same point of last year, as Ukrainian exporters have tried to free old crop stocks from a record-breaking production year, and catch up after months of blockade by Russian forces.

By comparison, at the same stage of last year, stock levels were already almost empty.

Meanwhile, the corn harvest is currently ongoing in Ukraine, and therefore more volumes are expected to come later this year, with the total volume expected to be harvested standing at around 26 million mt.

In terms of destinations, Italy was the lead with 300,000 mt imported, followed by Romania with 247,569 mt heading there - a fall back destination that has picked up traction as inspection delays for ships heading out of deep water ports mount.

As such, in anticipation of that outlet becoming clogged, exporters have been switching back to barge shipments from Romanian Black Sea ports over the last three weeks.

Spain also remained one of the key importers with 208,000 mt sent, while Hungary received 186,487 mt, the Netherlands took 171,626 mt and 141,149 mt left to China.

Wheat exports through the period reached almost 1.9 million mt, which is only around half of what was exported during the same month back in 2021.

Nonetheless, that pushed the total wheat exported since July 1 to 4.9 million mt, also around 60% down year-on-year.

Turkey was the main importer of Ukrainian wheat during the period with 313,475 mt leaving, followed by Spain with 304,453 mt, Romania with 266,231 mt, Indonesia at 140,268 mt, and Vietnam at 115,231 mt.

Finally, barley exports were at 313,000 mt in October, pushing the total to 1.09 million mt – 76% down compared to last year, with a substantial volume of monthly volume leading to Romania (89,930 mt), Turkey (65,563 mt) and Spain (60,797 mt).