Ukrainian grain and oilseeds export in 2023/24 can drop to 43.9 mmt: UGA

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has issued new estimates for the country's 2023/24 marketing year exports, forecasting a reduction in the potential grain and oilseeds exports to 43.9 million mt, in data released Thursday. 

The move comes because of an expected drop in production, but the figure would only be realistic if the work of the Black Sea grains corridor continues to operate and is not distracted by further suspensions or interruptions.

The forecast is 22% below the estimate for the current 2022/23 marketing year, which has started with very high stocks amid the war and a total figure of 56.4 million mt.

“A sharp drop for the future crop is expected due to the occupation of Ukrainian territories, mined territories, and continued hostilities, as well as the lack of funds and other resources for farmers for a full-fledged sowing campaign and crop cultivation,” the UGA said.

Grains

The potential wheat export figure is assessed at 15 million mt, given an expected 11% drop in production to 17.9 million mt amid a smaller planted area, but ending stocks could reach 5.3 million by the start of the 2023/24 season.

The association expects barley exports could reach 2 million mt in 2023/24 with a drop in production of 1.4 million mt to 4.4 million mt.

Corn exports are projected at 19 million mt for the upcoming season, again on the back of a fall in planted area as the size of the fields sown with corn were reduced by 800,000 ha.

As such, the expected output was also expected to fall by 14% to 23.3 million mt.

Oilseeds

Sunflower production is forecast to increase by 14% to 12.7 million mt amid an increase in planted areas of 800,000 ha, in a move that could allow an increase in the exports to 1.2 million mt and domestic sunflower processing to 11.5 million mt.

Rapeseed output is only projected to grow by 3% to 3.8 million mt, which could allow exports at 3.5 million mt.

Finally, UGA estimated soybean production would reach 4.4 million mt, almost 19% higher year-on-year, with the estimated export potential rising to 3 million mt.