WASDE: US soybean output and exports trimmed on lower yields

US production of soybean for the 2017/2018 crop year will reach 4,392 million bushels (119.5 million mt), according to the latest monthly estimate from the USDA, down 33 million bushels on lower yields of 491 bushels.

The numbers, contained in January's WASDE, were below an average of analyst estimates, who were predicting an unchanged yield of 49.5 bushels per acre and production of 4.430 million bushels.

However, another closely watched number – US ending stocks – was in line with analyst estimates, with the USDA increasing ending stock projections 25 million bushels to 470 million bushels on slow exports in the first four months of the marketing year.

“Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2,160 million, reflecting lagging sales commitments through December and increased competition with higher soybean production and export forecasts for Brazil,” the report said.

The harvested area was largely unchanged at 89.5 million acres, the USDA said.

On a global front, an increase in the estimate of Brazil’s production to 110 million mt from 108 million mt due to higher yields, marginally offset the 900,000 mt fall in US production and a fall in Argentinian output to 56 million mt from 57 million mt.

The revisions were in line with analyst expectations.

Futures trading on the Chicago Board of Trade experienced a minor rally on the news, trading up 5 cents to $9.55/bu for beans delivered in March.