WASDE corn yield 175.4, production 14.578bln, beats analyst expectations

The much-anticipated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for November has surpassed the expectations of industry analysts’ in its revision to the US corn outlooks, posting a bigger increase in yields and a larger production figure than many had been braced for.

The report revised US yields upwards to 175.4 bushels per acre (bu/a), with overall production topping 14.578 billion bushels, the report released Thursday showed.

FC Stone got close in its projections, calling for a 14.434 billion bu production from a yield of 173.7 bu/a.

Feed and residual consumption was increased by 75 million bu to 5.575 billion bushels, corn exports also increased 75 million bushels to 1.925 billion bushels, versus October.

Ending stocks also jumped up 147 million bushels to 2.487 billion bushels, according to the data.

The move came after many in the industry had expected an increase in yields, as farmers reported better-than-expected results in the corn crop, despite the delay in harvesting.

However, the scale of the improvement outpaced the expectations and weighed heavily on values which have already been laid low by healthy global supply.

Just ahead of the announcement the front month December CBOT corn contract was trading 25 points lower around $3.48/bu but 3.5 cents/bu was taken off in the wake of the announcement – falling to $3.4475/bu.

Globally, corn stocks were increased by 2.9 million mt to 203.9 million mt although Ukraine and Russia’s harvest were both lowered in line with disappointing.

How they measure up:
(name - yield bu/a, US production b/bu, estimate/survey)

USDA WASDE - 175.4, 14.578, estimate
Wall Street Journal - 172.3, 14.323, survey
Thomson Reuters - 172.4, 14.333, survey
Bloomberg - 172.4, 14.327, survey
FC Stone - 173.7, 14.434, estimate
Informa - 173.4, 14.410, estimate