Wasde: USDA boosts Ukraine, EU wheat output, leaves Russia steady
The USDA has boosted its production outlook for Ukraine and the European Union, while unexpectedly leaving Russian and Australian projections steady, leading to a small increase in global production and ending stock estimates.
For the US wheat outlook, the January update to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) posted gains in supplies and domestic consumption, leaving exports unchanged, while ending stocks were reduced because of the uptick in domestic use.
The world was expected to produce 781.31 million mt of wheat in 2022/23, up 720,000 mt from the December report.
The USDA increased Ukraine’s production estimate to 21 million mt, up from 20.5 million mt last month, with the export outlook boosted from 12.5 million mt to 13 million mt.
EU farmers are projected to produce 134.7 million mt, up from, 134.3 million mt seen in the December report.
The department stubbornly refused to raise Russia’s production outlook from 91 million mt, ignoring data from Russia’s agriculture ministry that has already confirmed a wheat crop at 106 million mt in bunker weight and translates into around 102-103 million mt clean weight.
Russian export and ending stock levels were also left unchanged at 43 million mt and 14.39 million mt, respectively.
Australia also went unchanged, holding steady at 36.6 million mt, which is identical to the December forecast from the country’s agriculture ministry, but short of the 40-41 million mt range expected by local sources.
Chicago wheat futures had been in the red for much of the day, but losses eased after the release of leaving March 2023 futures unchanged at 12:28 pm East Coast time.
Ending stocks for 2022/23 were projected at 268.39 million mt, up from 267.33 million mt projected in December, and down from 276.82 million mt at the end of 2021/22.
Analysts projected that the USDA would report that ending stocks for 2022/23 would stand at 268 million mt.
Ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 268.39 million mt, up from 267.33 million mt projected in December, and down from 276.82 million mt at the end of 2021/22.
Analysts projected that the USDA would report that ending stocks for 2022/23 would stand at 268 million mt.
Global trade is expected to total 211.62 million mt, up by 770,000 mt from the December report.
Consumption projections were boosted by 210,000 mt to 789.74 million mt, as higher feed and residual use in the US more than offset declines in Ukraine, according to the report.
US
The USDA projects that the US will produce 1.65 billion bushels (44.9 million mt) in the 2022/23 marketing year, unchanged from last month’s report.
Ending stockpiles were seen at 567 million bushels (15.43 million mt) at the end of the crop year, down from 571 million bushels (15.54 million mt) in the December Wasde, and lower than the projections of analysts surveyed by Agricensus who were looking for ending stocks of 580 million bushels (15.79 million mt).
Beginning stockpiles were boosted to 698 million bushels (18.99 million mt), up from 669 million bushels (18.21 million mt) in the December report.
“Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks,” the report said.
The projected area planted stands at 45.7 million acres, while the area harvested was 35.5 million acres - unchanged from last month’s report.
The yield per harvested acre average is 46.5 bpa, which is also the same as the figure cited in the December report.
Exports are projected to total 775 million bushels (21.09 million mt), unchanged from the December estimate.