Wasde: USDA cuts Argentina's soybean output to 33mmt, below projections

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report cut Argentina’s soybean output by 8 million mt to 33 million mt, below the market’s projections, in a report published Wednesday

Argentina's production was cut from the previous 41 million due to dry and hot weather conditions, while the average market players projection was 36 million mt, according to an Agricensus poll Monday.

Soybean CBOT futures traded higher immediately after the release, with the May contract up 12.4 c/bu four minutes after, however, futures were lower than before the release level 45 minutes later.

Argentina is projected to export 3.4 million mt, down from the previous 4.2 million mt, while imports were increased by 1 million mt on the month to 7.2 million mt.

Argentina’s domestic crush projection also declined to 35.2 million mt from the previous 37.3 million mt forecasts.

US 2022/23 ending stocks were pegged at 210 million bushels (5.7 million mt), 15 million bushels (408,000 mt) lower than the previous 225 million bushels (6.1 million mt) from February’s Wasde, as higher exports more than offset lower crush.

If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest in seven years, according to USDA.

On average, Agricensus poll has pegged US soybean ending stocks at 223 million bushels (6 million mt). 

US Soybean exports are raised by 25 million bushels (680,000 mt) to 2.02 billion bu (54.8 million mt) based on higher-than-expected shipments through February, USDA said.

Domestic crush projection declined to 2.21 billion bushels (60.4 million mt), down from the previous 2.23 billion bushels (60.6 million mt) projection, on a small reduction in domestic soybean meal disappearance combined with a higher extraction rate

US production figures remained unchanged at 116.38 million.

Global soybean output dropped from February’s 383.01 million mt to 375.15 million mt, due to cuts in Argentina and Uruguay’s crop, while beginning stocks slightly increased from 98.83 million mt from the previous report to 99 million mt.

Global ending stock estimates were pegged at 100.01 million mt, down from the previous 102 million mt projection, while market players' average estimate was at 101.3 million mt, the Agricensus poll showed.

Analysts heard by Agricensus poll projected global ending stocks at 100 million mt average.

USDA also slightly increased global soybean exports to 168.40 million mt from the previous 167.53 million mt estimates, with lower exports for Argentina offset by higher shipments for US, Paraguay and Brazil.

Global domestic use declined to 371.13 million mt from the previous 376.4 million mt.

Global soybean imports increased to 165.39 million mt from the prior report’s 164.07 million mt.

Brazilian output remained unchanged at 153 million mt while Brazil’s exports were slightly increased to 92.7 million mt, an all-time high and 700,00 mt increase from February.

Uruguay soybean production is also lowered 200,000 mt to 2.1 million mt.

China's output remained dropped to 20.28 million mt from the previous 20.3 million mt, while the country’s crush declined by 2 million mt to 92 million mt.  

The Asian country's imports remained projected at 96 million mt while domestic demand dropped to 113.30 million mt from previous 115.30 million mt.