Wasde preview: Eyes on the size of expected cut to US soybean yields

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expected to cut US soybean yield estimates on the September release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report Tuesday, an Agricensus poll showed Monday.

“[One of the] big questions is how much the recent hot and dry spell may have hurt bean yields since the USDA gathered their survey data,” Grain Service Corporation’s vice president Diana Klemme said.

The eleven traders and analysts polled by Agricensus agree US soybean yields and 2023/24 ending stocks will be downgraded but the size of the cut will be a potential market-mover Tuesday.

While on average the poll pegged US soybean ending stocks at 209 million bushels, down 36 million bushels from August’s estimates, individual figures ranged from 170 to 235 million bushels.

Similarly, soybean yields are expected to decline from 50.9 to 50.1 bushels per acre, with individual estimates ranging from 49.8 to 50.4 bushels per acre.

The poll expects the backdrop in US soybean output to feed onto lower global stocks, with little changes elsewhere seen having a relevant impact on the global balance sheet.