Wasde preview: Global soybean stocks trimmed on Brazil’s woes

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expected to trim its global soybean ending stock figures in the December edition of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report, according to an Agricensus’ poll of six traders and analysts.

Participants on average expect the USDA to peg its global soybean ending stocks slightly lower than the November values, where the agency estimated 2023/24 global ending stocks of 114.5 million mt.

However, the poll revealed considerable variation in individual estimates.

For the US, new crop ending stocks were seen, on average, at 243 million bushels (bu), marginally lower than November’s Wasde 245 million bu estimates.

Individual estimates ranged from 227 to 255 million bu.

On average, the poll showed global soybean ending stocks 1.7 million mt below USDA’s November estimates at 112.9 million mt, with individual numbers varying from a major fall to 110.5 million mt to a mild build of 116.8 million mt.

The backdrop in global stocks is largely explained by an expected reduction in Brazil’s soybean production in 2023/24 as the crop has been struggling with excessively hot and dry conditions since planting works started a couple of months ago.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its December 2023 Wasde report at 1200 Eastern Time on Friday, December 10.