Wasde preview: Major cut expected for US soybean stocks

Market participants expect the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will slash its US soybean production and ending stock figures in its July supply and demand estimates update released later this week, an Agricensus poll of seven traders and analysts showed Monday.

The USDA will release its influential World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report Wednesday and poll participants believe it will show significant downgrades to the supply side of the US’s soybean balance sheet.

On average, the poll pegged the US 2023/24 soybean ending stocks at 243 million bushels, down from 350 million reported at June’s Wasde.

Such expectations are backed by the department’s annual Prospective Plantings report published on June 30 which showed soybean acreage figures considerably below market expectations.

Poll participants look for a reduction in soybean acreage and yield figures, with output pegged on average 241 million bushels lower on the month at 4,269 million bushels.

Although the reduction in US production and ending stocks figures seems consensual, the market will have its eyes on the size of the cut in estimates Wednesday with individual expectations shown in the poll for US ending stocks varying widely from 189 million bushels to 290 million bushels.

Little changes are expected in other regions according to the poll, with lower US supplies leading to a reduction in global stocks.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its July 2023 Wasde report at 1200 Eastern Time on Wednesday, July 12.