Wasde preview: US, global corn 2022/23 ending stocks seen lower

The September update of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s influential World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report is projected to show declines in its estimates for the US and global ending stockpiles in the 2022/23 crop year, while increasing ending stock projections for the old crop year, an Agricensus poll showed Wednesday.

According to the poll, analysts forecast US production will decline by 269 million bushels (6.83 million mt) to 14.09 billion bushels (358 million mt) from 14.359 billion bushels estimated in August, as yield projections decrease.   

For the new crop, yields are seen at 172.5 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 175.4/bpa projected in August, and the harvested area is projected to total 81.7 million acres, down from 81.8 million acres last month.

Declining production is seen leading to lower ending stocks in the US, with analysts projecting the report will show 1.206 billion bushels (31 million mt), down by 182 million bushels (4.6 million mt) from the August Wasde.

Agricensus received a wide range of US ending stock estimates, ranging from 1.006 billion bushels (25.6 million mt) to 1.41 billion (35.8 million mt).   

US ending stocks for the 2021/22 crop year are estimated to be 17 million bushels (400,000 mt) higher at 1.547 billion bushels (39.3 million mt).

Global ending stockpiles for the new crop year are projected to decline by 5.3 million mt from August’s report to 301 million mt.

Global stockpiles for the old crop year are anticipated to climb by 200,000 mt from last month's report to 312 million mt.

Respondents expect that September’s update to the Wasde report will leave Argentina’s new crop estimate at 55 million mt, and the 2021/22 output projections at 53 million mt, which is also unchanged from the August report.

The September Wasde is seen leaving Brazil’s 2022/23 production estimate at 126 million mt, while maintaining the old crop projection at 116 million mt.

The USDA will release its September 2022 Wasde report at 1200 Eastern Time on Monday, September 12.