With Germany out of the market Saudi Arabia courts Russian wheat

Officials from Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture have met with representatives of Saudi Arabia’s state grain importer SAGO in a move which may open the door for Russian wheat sales to the major Middle East grain importer.

According to a statement from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, a Monday meeting between Deputy Minister of Agriculture Sergey Levin, Minister of Agriculture Abdurrahman Al-Fadley, and head of SAGO Ahmad Al-Faris saw eagerness from both sides to increase Russian participation in Saudi milling wheat and barley tenders.

Al-Faris “urged Russian companies to register for participation in state tenders for the supply of grain products,” according to a Russian Ministry of Agriculture statement.

"We are pleased with the positive dynamics of the Russian-Saudi trade turnover, but its maximum volumes are yet to come,” Levin said.

The move was welcomed by Russian sellers, who are currently looking for as many outlets as possible for a bumper wheat crop which has broken all previous records.

“This is a good development,” a Dubai-based trader of Russian wheat who declined to be named said. “We hope this will make it acceptable for Russian wheat to participate in SAGO tenders.”

The sticking point to date has been SAGO’s insistence on 0% bug damage in its grain imports, a condition which Russian sellers are typically unable to guarantee with local standards permitting a tolerance of up to 1.5% bug damage.

The development may cause some jitters in the EU, which has typically seen Saudi Arabia as a major export destination for its wheat. EU soft wheat exports of 1.28 million mt to Saudi Arabia represent 14.2% of its total sales this marketing year, according to data from the European Commission.

Germany, in particular, will be watching the development with interest. Traditionally the EU’s major wheat supplier to Saudi Arabia, in 2016 alone Germany sold 1.28 million mt of wheat to Saudi Arabia in deals worth €211 million, according to EU customs data.

According to Russian statistics data, there have only approximately 30,000 mt of sales to Saudi Arabia since the start of the 2015/16 marketing year, equivalent to less than 0.05% of Russia’s total wheat exports over the previous three marketing years.

However, the meeting between Russian and Saudi officials comes against a backdrop of lowered exports from Germany, which has only managed 841,129 mt of wheat exports since the start of the 2017/18 marketing year on July 1.

Tight domestic supply has kept traditional material available for export sales off the international market and has pushed up the price of German wheat well above competitive international levels.

A strengthening of the euro against the dollar over the course of 2017 has done little to help European exporters remain competitive either.

A 12.5% protein German-origin milling wheat is currently approximately $200/mt FOB Hamburg for January shipment, while an equivalent Russian-origin product is priced significantly lower at $192/mt FOB Novorossiysk or even $185/mt FOB Kaliningrad.