Articles By Eduardo Tinti
Soybean and soymeal futures rallied, while soyoil prices rose only marginally, after the USDA published the January edition of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday January 10 showing lower-than-expected figures for soybean output and ending stocks in 2024/25.
The USDA is expected to lower its US soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 season in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report due to be released on Friday January 10, a Fastmarkets poll with seven traders and analysts showed.
Fastmarkets has corrected its AG-SYB-0078 Crush Margin China Soy (Brazil) M1 Yuan/mt; AG-SYB-0079 Crush Margin China Soy (US Gulf) M1 Yuan/mt; and AG-SYB-0082 Crush Margin US Soy M1 c$/bu for the period between December 2-13, 2024, which were published incorrectly due to a procedure lapse error. Fastmarkets has also corrected its AG-SYB-0078 Crush Margin China Soy (Brazil) M1 Yuan/mt and AG-SYB-0079 Crush Margin China Soy (US Gulf) M1 Yuan/mt for November 20 and November 29, 2024, which were published incorrectly due to a typo.
India has bought more than 80,000 tonnes of soyoil from South America and the United States in the last days of 2024 amid a drop in soyoil prices that widened the gap with competing oils in India, sources told Fastmarkets.
China’s soybean imports for January shipments have been relatively sluggish due to multiple factors including de-risking strategies considering potential tariffs under a second Donald Trump administration in the US and a bumper crop, which is expected to be harvested in South America, sources told Fastmarkets on Monday December 16.
Futures across the soy complex in Chicago reacted mildly to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released late in the session on Tuesday December 10, with little changes to global balance sheets and an anticipated increase in US soyoil export figures.
The EU and Mercosur — the trade bloc that includes Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — announced on Friday December 6 the end of negotiations for the free-trade agreement between the blocs, but questions linger about the potential impacts on trade flows of agricultural products.
Market participants expect little changes to US soybean ending stocks when the USDA updates its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday December 10, a Fastmarkets’ poll with seven traders and analysts showed.
US soyoil net sales rose to 124,800 tonnes in the week to November 21, the highest weekly figure since March 2019 and the sixth highest in the USDA historical data that goes back to 1990, the USDA reported on Friday November 29.
US weekly net sales of wheat for the 2024/25 crop year totaled 366,800 tonnes during the week to November 21, down by 33% from the previous week, the USDA said on Friday November 29.
Fastmarkets has corrected its AG-SYB-0081 Crush Margin Argentina Soy, which was published incorrectly on Wednesday November 13.
Chinese state agencies held an auction for imported soybeans on Thursday November 21, where 89,895 tonnes of soybeans were offered with 6,716 tonnes sold at a 7.5% clearance rate.
Chinese state agencies will hold an auction for imported soybeans on Thursday November 21, offering around 90,000 tonnes for sale, according to a note released by the National Grain Trade Center (NGTC) on Tuesday November 19.
Chinese state agencies held an auction for imported soybeans on Thursday December 14, where 89,896 tonnes of soybeans were offered but no sales were made, sources have told Fastmarkets.
A state auction offering large soybean volumes previously scheduled for Tuesday November 12 has been delayed or canceled in China – although this has not yet been officially announced- sources told Fastmarkets.
Soymeal futures spiked along with soybeans after the USDA released the November edition of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday November 8, cutting back US soybean production figures.
President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the US could bring different outcomes across the soybean complex. A potential trade war with China could have several impacts on global commodity markets, especially beans, with Chinese demand potentially shifting to other origins such as South America, sources have told Fastmarkets.
Soyoil premiums in Argentina have surged since the beginning of the month, to trade at one of the highest levels on record since Fastmarkets started following the market in 2018, with volumes for nearby deliveries pressured by Indian demand and a slow pace of farmer sales, according to sources.
US soybean crush volumes in September 2024 jumped to 170.32 million bushels, surpassing volumes crushed both in the previous month and in September 2023, as well as exceeding the average trade estimate, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) on Tuesday October 15.
US and global balance sheets remained mostly unchanged for soybean and downstream soy products in the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) monthly update released on Friday October 11, but futures across the complex fell after the release.